Good morning.

All is quiet on the western front.

A combination of abundant Saharan dust and dry air across the Tropical Atlantic, high shear across the Caribbean due to a strong El Nino in the Eastern Pacific and below normal temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic, is inhibiting tropical development at this time. There is currently no end in sight in any of these. The only area with significantly warm water is the Caribbean and with our strong El Nino nothing may be able to get to it. I anticipate that we probably won't see much in the way of significant tropical development until late in the season, ? mid-late September /October.

Hoping for a quiet 2026 Tropical Season for all of us.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt.
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Good afternoon.

Unlike 2024, 2025 was a very good tropical season for the entire US with no landfalling hurricanes.

We are currently in a La Nina which is forecast to end by the end of this month. An El Nino is forecast to start in August and become strong by September/October. This combined with below average water temperatures in the far Eastern Atlantic should lead to a reduced Cape Verde season (which are the storms that pose the greatest risk to South Florida). If you look at the maps below you will notice several things.

First diagram shows abundant dry air over the Gulf and most of the Atlantic.

Second diagram, sea surface temps, shows the only warm water currently is in the Caribbean, with an El Nino storms may have a hard time getting to it due to associated shear.

​Third diagram, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (Variation from expected for this time of year, not absolute), shows the main area of above expected temps in the Western Atlantic north of 20 degrees, as well as some in the Gulf.

Fourth, Heat Content, which is water temperatures to depth, 200 feet, which shows heat in the Caribbean however the Gulf has significantly cooled, at depth, due to our unusually cold winter this year, with lots of wind as well.

The bottom line. We should see below average tropical activity in 2026. In particular SE Florida should be at lower risk. The areas at greatest risk this year will be the Bahamas and the US East Coast. The Gulf may not see activity until late in the season, ? mid September through early November. 

Rainfall at my house in 2025, despite a 10 inch rain event on 3/30/25 was 57.32", below my 36 year running average of 66.45".

Wishing everyone a quiet 2025 Hurricane Season,

                                                                            Matt.

​2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

Good morning.

Melissa has begun its NNE move. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see a cold front sweeping across South Florida. This will prevent any further westward movement. Melissa will be picking up forward speed and will cross Western Jamaica today. This unfortunately will be a devastating event.

My thought and prayers are with everyone on the island and their friends and families elsewhere.

Until next time,           

                                        Matt.
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Good evening.

There have been a few interesting developments with Melissa since yesterday evening. The most significant is that it is currently located south and west of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time yesterday. The NHC's track still takes it right over Jamaica however there is a significant chance that if this more westerly motion persists that it may pass just to the west of the island. That would be very significant. H Melissa is currently a very intense yet compact storm with an eye of 10 nm wide. Hurricane force winds extend only 20-25 miles from the center and the eye wall extends up to 10 miles from the center, (Where the Cat 4 and 5 winds extend). If it should pass 20 miles off shore Jamaica could be spared from the worst of its winds. Its slow speed however will lead to extensive flooding, landslides and other serious damaging effects.

My current track takes it just to the west of Jamaica about 10 miles offshore. The NHC is currently not forecasting any further western movement, if it moves even a little more to the west it could make a big difference. Every mile to the west could be very significant with regards to wind damage. I would love to see it pass >20 west of the island. It should start to turn to the NNE tomorrow morning.

I have my fingers crossed and an hoping that this short term trend continues.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.
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Good evening.

Melissa became a hurricane today and appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. An eye should become visible soon. Melissa has been drifting for the past few days and hasn't moved very much. The NHC is currently forecasting it to become a Cat 4 hurricane and make landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday. This will be both a wind and rain event. Hispaniola may be spared the wind however widespread flooding and land slides will be a problem for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba.

High pressure continues to protect Florida.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.

​After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas.   The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.

SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.

It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.

Until next time, 
 
                                                        Matt.
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Just an announcement. The Rare Fruit Council International will be sponsoring an event on Saturday, November 8th in Redland. For those of you who attended last year it was a lot of fun. It will be an even bigger event this year with more vendors and food. The Groove Brother's will be playing again which is a great band. The proceeds will benefit the RFCI a not for profit educational club. 

The property is located on Krome Avenue immediately south of By Brothers, look for the Fruteria Los Mendez sign and the yellow Roasted Corn sign.

There are a limited number of tickets available and the event will likely sell out so if interested I would recommend buying tickets earlier rather than late.

I will be at the event and hope to see you there,

                                                 Matt.
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Good morning.

​Our first cold front of the season is pushing through SE Florida as we speak. This will continue to protect the state as well as the east coast of the US.

I'll be continuing to  watch closely however we're still looking good.

Until next time,

                                                Matt.

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Good evening.

The last area of disturbed weather that I talked about has become H Humberto which is moving out to sea. A second area is showing signs of slow development and may be come TS Imelda tomorrow. 

The weak frontal boundary that was over and just south of South Florida for the past 3 plus weeks has dissipated, however a new frontal system ,currently over north central Florida, is slowly moving SE and will likely replace it. This should help to protect Florida from potential Imelda however as it is still to our west it will allow the system to come closer, however it should still miss the state. The area at potential risk are the Coastal Carolinas, however I suspect that it will stall just off the coast and then move NE along the  advancing front, out to sea. 

Elsewhere a couple of weak waves are about to move off the coast of Africa which I'll be watching.

Until next time,
​
                                        Matt.

Good morning.

The NHC is tracking a couple of systems out there however neither currently pose a threat to the US. The stalled frontal boundary currently just east of Florida and the SE US has pushed a little eastward.
This is the feature which has keep South Florida in a very rainy pattern for the past 3 weeks. This will continue to protect the US. Both Gabrielle and the potential system behind should follow a similar path out to sea.

As noted previously I do not anticipate anything of significant for the US until October.

The Saharan dust and dry air are still out there but are becoming more fragmented, however they continue to hamper tropical development.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.
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